The refinery IPO drew $4.78 billion of orders at home, Abuja wants $20.5 billion in new foreign loans, and Nigeria ends the week with no confirmed Ebola case.

Money was not Nigeria's problem this week. Trust was. More than 2 million Nigerians and the country's big institutions put about ₦6.4 trillion behind the Dangote refinery, according to Reuters, and the eurobond curve tightened as investors shrugged off a new borrowing request. Europe's oil majors handed their last onshore stakes to Nigerian buyers. The state asked for the same confidence and got a harder reception. President Bola Tinubu wants $20.5 billion and €1.05 billion in new foreign loans less than 12 weeks before the vote, while 62 people died in one Taraba village and gunmen shot a cleric in Katsina. Private capital is betting on Nigeria. The election will test whether voters extend the same credit to Abuja.

What happened. The share sale in the Dangote refinery closed on Oct 27, after a two-week extension that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved. It offered 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 each, aiming for about $1.6 billion (roughly ₦2.15 trillion), with a 30% over-allotment option that could lift it to about $2.1 billion, per Nairametrics. Reuters reported, citing one person involved, about ₦6.4 trillion ($4.78 billion) of orders from Nigerian retail and institutional investors alone, from more than 2 million investors applying online. Nairametrics counts applicants from 119 countries, including all 54 African countries.

Why it matters. The orders are almost as large as the whole banking system's spare cash. System liquidity stood at ₦6.936 trillion in the week to Oct 23, per Nairametrics. So the refunds of unfilled orders matter for the money market as much as the allotment matters for Dangote. Allocation starts next week, ahead of a planned listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) later in November, Reuters said, citing the prospectus. Bloomberg reported that domestic demand alone roughly covered the target. That leaves foreign funds with smaller allocations than they wanted, and Nigerian institutions and retail savers with the biggest share of Africa's largest IPO. Buyers in East and Southern Africa could subscribe at home, through global depositary receipt (GDR) programs in Nairobi and Gaborone priced at KSh 53.50 per GDR, and through Standard Bank nominee structures for Egypt and Ethiopia.

Senate President Godswill Akpabio read the president's letter in plenary on Oct 27. The 2026-2027 Supplementary External Borrowing Plan asks for $20,517,755,901 and €1,045,083,643, and went to the Committee on Local and Foreign Debts with a report due within one week (ThisDay). The letter gives no project-by-project breakdown and no terms.

After the cabinet met on Oct 28, Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele put $10.6 billion of it on transport, including the Sokoto-Badagry and Lagos-Calabar highways and the Kano-Kaduna railway, and said a $5 billion World Bank component carries about 2.1% interest. "This is investment, not borrowing," he said (Daily Trust). In Enugu on Oct 29, opposition candidate Peter Obi said Tinubu "must go round Nigeria and tell them what he used nearly $100 billion he borrowed for" (Premium Times).

Bond investors did not flinch. Every Nigerian eurobond tightened between Oct 27 and Oct 28, and the 8.25% 2051 closed at 8.559%, 6.3 basis points below the 8.622% we reported for Oct 22 (Debt Management Office). The gap is the story: the market charges Nigeria about four times the World Bank rate Oyedele cited. The more of the $20.5 billion that comes from concessional lenders, the cheaper the second term gets. The plan is proposed, not approved.

Health Minister Muhammad Ali Pate said the country's only confirmed patient left Abuja for Switzerland by air ambulance on Oct 26 (Nairametrics). On Oct 27 Jide Idris, director-general of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), said Nigeria "currently has no confirmed case" and warned against claims that it had been declared Ebola-free. The NCDC has 54 primary contacts under daily surveillance, up from 44 when the case was announced on Oct 20, and three symptomatic contacts tested negative (Blueprint). Suspected cases in the FCT and Rivers State also came back negative.

The regional numbers explain the caution. Africa CDC counts 10,172 confirmed cases and 4,932 deaths across DR Congo, Uganda, France, Kenya and Nigeria, and its chief says Africa is "not winning so far" (Premium Times). In a post carried first in Hausa by Aminiya, WHO Africa regional director Mohamed Janabi said no one in Nigeria now carries the virus, urged monitoring of 52 contacts, and said experts would trace the source because the patient had not been to DR Congo. The NCDC called reports that the outbreak could delay the January election "entirely false". It is paying ₦100,000 a week to support quarantined contacts.

Gunmen described as bandits attacked Binnari in Taraba State's Karim-Lamido area on Oct 23. Ladan Ayuba, who heads the state emergency agency, told AP that at least 62 people were killed and 52 wounded, and thousands fled. Police first confirmed 10 deaths. Some 15 bodies came out of the Benue River, and Amnesty International Nigeria's Isa Sanusi said people "were chased towards the river". Last week we reported 113 dead in Benue. That makes two mass-casualty attacks in the Middle Belt in two weeks.

In Katsina, two gunmen shot dead the cleric Sheikh Yahaya Ibrahim Masussuka outside his home in Dutsin-Ma on Oct 26. Ansaru claimed the killing, a claim Premium Times says no one has independently authenticated, and President Bola Tinubu ordered an investigation. On Oct 28, attackers hit APC supporters on their way to a Tinubu rally in Funtua, and police arrested 14 suspects. The campaign itself opened in Kaduna on Oct 24, where campaign director AbdulAzeez Yari told the crowd that "Northern Nigeria is 101 per cent behind you". Insecurity is now the opposition's sharpest line in the north-west, the region that will decide the race.

TotalEnergies completed the sale of its 10% non-operated interest in the Renaissance joint venture licenses to Vaaris for $800 million on Oct 27, keeping the three joint-venture gas licences that supply 50% of Nigeria LNG's gas. A day earlier Eni completed the sale of Agip Energy and Natural Resources, which holds 5% of the same venture, to Apex Global Energy, owned by Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production. Eni keeps its deepwater assets and its Nigeria LNG stake. On Oct 30 TotalEnergies also signed to sell 40% of the offshore OPL257 block to South Atlantic Petroleum, pending completion. All three came from company statements carried by MT Newswires.

The timing is good for the buyers. Nigeria pumped 1.717 million barrels a day of crude and condensate in September, up 2.34% from August, and supplied more than 127 million barrels to domestic refineries from January to September, said Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, who runs the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. Brent closed at $114.91 on Oct 29. Seplat lifted third-quarter profit to $95.5 million from $68.5 million and declared a $0.14 special dividend. The next test is whether the new owners can fund the drilling the majors stopped, with dollar debt raised against crude sales.

■  INEC, the electoral commission, set the presidential and National Assembly elections for Jan 16, 2027, with governorship and state assembly polls on Feb 6 (INEC via Voice of Nigeria).

■  A Federal High Court in Abuja ruled on Oct 29 that Rochas Okorocha, not Imo Governor Hope Uzodimma, won the APC primary for the Imo West Senate seat. Uzodimma may appeal (Premium Times).

■  Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele said at least 30 state assemblies have approved the state police amendment, with assent expected by December. Jigawa voted on Oct 27 (Daily Trust, Aminiya in Hausa).

■  The ADC moved its Sokoto presidential campaign launch from Oct 31 to Nov 4, a change reported first in Hausa (Aminiya).

■  French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit, planned for Oct 29 to Nov 6, is postponed to early 2027, Nairametrics reported. We found no statement from either presidency (single-sourced).

■  Inflation eased to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August (NBS via Tekedia).

■  NNPC's ₦66 a litre discount at its own stations ends on Oct 31, so watch pump prices from Nov 1 (NNPC via Blueprint).

■  South Africa's rebased 2025 economy is about $483 billion, against Nigeria's $328 billion (Reuters via CNBC Africa).

■  The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) granted JPMorgan Merchant Bank Nigeria an approval in principle on Oct 23, after a ₦50 billion deposit, about $38 million. A final licence comes later. This updates our Oct 23 item, which had no CBN statement (Nairametrics).

■  OPay filed for a New York IPO of up to $336 million, 16 million American depositary shares at $19 to $21, with $270 million of non-binding interest lined up (MT Newswires, from the SEC filing).

SEC Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria's capital markets regulator · NGX Nigerian Exchange, the Lagos stock market · GDR Global depositary receipt, a certificate that lets investors abroad hold shares listed elsewhere · NCDC Nigeria Centre for Disease Control · CBN Central Bank of Nigeria · NFEM Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, the official naira window · INEC Independent National Electoral Commission · MPR Monetary Policy Rate, the CBN's benchmark interest rate

South Africa rebased its national accounts this week and found an economy about 5% larger, Reuters reported. Nigeria's 2025 output is ₦441.5 trillion, about $328 billion at the rate Reuters used. The week's IPO showed Nigerians can fund a $50 billion company. The dollar size of the economy shows how much the weak naira still costs them.

■  Borrowing plan. $20.5 billion and €1.05 billion before the Senate debt committee, report due around Nov 3. No split yet between eurobonds and concessional loans.

■  Dangote allotment. Allocation starts next week, listing on NGX later in November (Reuters citing the prospectus). The issuer and the SEC have not published dates.

■  JPMorgan. Approval in principle only. The bank must incorporate before it can seek a final licence (CBN via Nairametrics).

■  World Bank. The $500 million NAIJA development policy loan, signed on Oct 6 by Oyedele, pays in two tranches of $249.375 million and closes Dec 31, 2027 (Legit.ng).

■  Debt market. The Oct 19 auction drew ₦304.08 billion of bids for ₦500 billion of the 2034 bond (DMO). The Oct 28 bill auction offered ₦800 billion, result not yet found.

Up to 60% of Nigeria's tomatoes spoil after harvest, Oyedele told the same London audience, per Aminiya. It reads like a farm statistic. It is also a price story and an investment gap: food inflation was 19.6% in September, and cold storage between the farm and the market remains one of the cheapest ways to bring it down.

That's the week. Back next Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. Our record, rolling 30 days: Errors 0 · Late 1 · Omissions 0. The late item is Dangote's Kenya Pipeline stake, disclosed on Oct 21, which we carry this week. If Cameroon is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Cameroon publishes the same day.

Kilwa Nigeria · Friday, October 30, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 3 · Week 44

Spot an error? Reply to this email. We correct the record in the next edition.

Kilwa Nigeria is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in English and Hausa, with Yoruba, Igbo and Pidgin outlets checked where reachable. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io