Inflation falls to 14.63%, Abuja offers a 30-day petrol discount, Dangote posts $4.73 billion and OPay files for New York.

Investors had a good week in Nigeria. Gross reserves reached $55.07bn on Oct 8, Fitch's positive outlook was still fresh, the Dangote refinery reported a $4.73 billion nine-month profit, and OPay filed to list in New York. Households got their first real dividend too: inflation fell to 14.63% in September. But the campaign that opened formally this week is being fought over the pump price, not the reserves. Abuja answered with a 30-day petrol discount and a proposed price ceiling that leans on refiners, the opposition answered with subsidy promises, and the IMF warned against both kinds of thinking. The question for the next 13 weeks is simple: does cheaper food reach voters before petrol politics reaches the budget?

What happened. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Oct 15 that headline inflation fell to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August. Prices rose just 0.06% over the month, down from 0.71%. Food did the work: food prices fell 1.55% in the month, though food inflation is still 19.59% on the year. Core inflation, which strips out farm produce and energy, eased to 12.95% on the year but jumped 1.11% in the month after a 0.06% fall in August.

Why it matters. The print beat expectations. BusinessDay had forecast 15.5% and Bloomberg Economics 15.6%. With the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 23% since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cut it by 350 basis points on Sep 22, the policy rate now sits more than 8 points above inflation. That gap is the case for another cut at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, whose date the CBN has not published. Borrowers and stock investors gain from that. Savers in treasury bills gain less: the 364-day bill cleared at 15.85% on Oct 7, barely 1.2 points above inflation. The warning sign is core. A 1.11% monthly rise, if repeated, would run at roughly 14% a year (our calculation), so the core trend, not the food relief, will decide how far the CBN goes.

On Oct 8 Taiwo Oyedele, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, announced a 30-day discount on petrol sold by NNPC Limited, the state oil company, with priority for public transporters. "It's not a subsidy," he said, describing it as selling "at cost". No per-litre amount was published. He also said the government is negotiating a ceiling of N1,350 a litre on the ex-gantry or landing cost, with refiners and importers absorbing costs above it and recovering the shortfall later. Pumps in Lagos and Abuja were selling at N1,400 to N1,450 a litre.

The opposition is promising more. Rabiu Kwankwaso, running mate to Peter Obi on the Nigeria Democratic Congress ticket, said on Oct 15 his party will do "whatever is necessary" to cut petrol prices, including possibly restoring the subsidy. Donald Duke has pledged petrol at about N300 a litre, and Atiku Abubakar said in August he would restore the subsidy. The IMF had already weighed in from Bangkok on Oct 14. Rodrigo Valdés, director of its Fiscal Affairs Department, said subsidies and price caps cost countries 1% to 1.5% of GDP in 2026.

The incumbent's machine started the same week. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inaugurated the APC Presidential Campaign Council on Oct 14, with former Zamfara governor Abdulaziz Yari as director general, and the party published a 12-state rally tour from Kaduna on Oct 24 to Lagos on Jan 9. Daily Trust reports that surrogates will cover more than 20 states. The presidential vote is on Jan 16, 2027. The losers in a price-cap world are the refiners asked to carry the gap, which brings the story to Lekki.

The Dangote refinery reported unaudited net profit of $4.73 billion for the nine months to Sep 30, against a $117.2 million loss a year earlier. Revenue rose 144% to $22.48 billion, the EBITDA margin climbed to 24.56% from 6.83%, and net debt of $1.73 billion became net cash of $650.8 million. Managing director David Bird called it the shift from commissioning to "sustainable commercial operations".

The day before, Nigeria's Securities and Exchange Commission approved a two-week extension of the offer of 4.1 billion shares at N525 each, about N2.15 trillion. It now closes Oct 27, with allotment sent to the regulator on Nov 10 and trading expected in early December. In Kenya the minimum subscription for depositary receipts fell from 2,000 receipts to 10, or Sh535, a sign the company wants small savers, not just funds.

Here is the link to the petrol fight. A N1,350 landing-cost ceiling that refiners must absorb and recover later would fall hardest on the country's biggest refiner, in the middle of its share sale. Buyers are pricing a company whose margin depends partly on a policy still being negotiated.

OPay filed its F-1 prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and applied to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker OPAY, with a secondary listing on the Nigerian Exchange proposed afterward. Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $467.1 million, up from $197.5 million a year earlier, and net income was $90.9 million. Nigeria supplied 89.5% of revenue. Monthly active users reached 47.5 million at June 30.

The filing's line items tell the real story. Loan financing alone earned $236.1 million, against $130.6 million from transaction services. With loan facilitation added, lending brought in $277.7 million, about 59% of revenue (our calculation from the filing). Standard Bank's Stanbic Africa Holdings will buy up to $200 million of shares alongside the offering, capped at 4.99% of the company.

Investors buying OPAY will be buying Nigerian consumer credit. That makes CBN rate cuts and lending rules a direct driver of the stock, and it puts pressure on banks that have left small borrowers to apps.

Suspected ISWAP and Boko Haram fighters overran a military base at Mairari in Guzamala, about 120 to 130 km north of Maiduguri, in an hours-long battle on Tuesday. Daily Trust, citing an anonymous security source, says at least 10 soldiers and four civilians are feared dead. SaharaReporters puts the soldiers killed at about 15. The military has released no toll, and news emerged late because phone networks in the area were down. The local council chairman confirmed the attack.

A day later Defence Minister Christopher Musa said the president had ordered security agencies to rescue all kidnapped victims and to stay "professional and neutral" during the election. Tinubu's campaign is due in Borno on Nov 25. In Kebbi, the Federal High Court in Birnin Kebbi convicted a Chinese national, Ripin Liu, and others on terrorism charges over a vehicle allegedly bought to move kidnap victims, with sentences of up to 15 years. Only the Hausa-language press carried it.

The human cost shows up in clinics. The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Oct 15 that malnutrition admissions at the facilities it supports in the North-East rose 18% to nearly 20,000 in January to September, and by nearly 24% in Mubi, Adamawa.

■  INEC excluded two PDP governorship candidates, Isa Pantami in Gombe and Ladi Adebutu in Ogun, under party-register rules. Parties have until Oct 24 to file omission complaints, and chairman Joash Amupitan says 10 of 14 timetable steps are done (Channels, TheCable).

■  Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila says the National Policing Bill is 90% ready and should reach the National Assembly in about two weeks (State House).

■  The NLC rejected the government's reply to its 14-day ultimatum. FCT teachers have been on strike since Oct 7 (Vanguard, Premium Times).

■  Nurses in Katsina began a one-week warning strike over allowance parity, a story carried only in Hausa (Aminiya).

■  Kano's disease control center confirmed five of six children in one Kumbotso family died of diphtheria (Vanguard).

■  A gas pipeline rupture at Eleme, Rivers, injured at least 20 people, and a petrol tanker exploded in Benin City, Edo (TheCable, Premium Times).

■  A new round of mass terrorism trials opened in Abuja before eight judges. A Finnish appeal court cut Simon Ekpa's sentence from six years to four (Premium Times).

■  Shell agreed to sell Shell Nigeria Gas, about 170 km of pipeline in Ogun, Abia and Rivers, to Vaaris Energy. Price undisclosed (ThisDay).

■  Ondo State signed a $362m public-private partnership with PyVee for a titanium plant at Alape, Ilaje (FMINO).

■  Africa Finance Corporation named CBN governor Olayemi Cardoso chairman of its board (Techeconomy, ThisDay).

■  The Super Falcons beat Comoros 5-0 to reach the third round of Olympic qualifying, where Morocco waits (Sports Village Square).

NBS National Bureau of Statistics, which publishes inflation data · CBN Central Bank of Nigeria · MPR Monetary Policy Rate, the central bank's benchmark interest rate · NNPC NNPC Limited, the state oil company · INEC Independent National Electoral Commission, which runs elections · ISWAP Islamic State West Africa Province, a jihadist group active in the North-East · EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a measure of operating profit · NLC Nigeria Labour Congress, the main union federation

Reserves are up 46% in 16 months, and stronger buffers sit at the top of what both Fitch and Moody's cited when they turned positive. The World Bank's $12.4bn errors and omissions gap is the reminder that not every dollar earned comes home.

■  Ratings. Fitch moved Nigeria's outlook to Positive and affirmed 'B' on Oct 9, then moved nine banks and two holding companies to Positive. Moody's has been positive since August.

■  Dangote IPO timetable. Close Oct 27, returns by Nov 3, allotment to the regulator Nov 10, clearance expected Nov 17, trading in early December (Capital FM).

■  OPay. F-1 filed for NYSE ticker OPAY. Stanbic's placement is the lowest of $200m, 0.98% of Standard Bank's qualifying capital or 4.99% of shares (SEC EDGAR).

■  Petrol ceiling. The N1,350 ex-gantry ceiling is still being negotiated and would be reviewed monthly. Watch who carries the recovery cost (Nairametrics).

■  External accounts. The World Bank counts a current account surplus of $12bn, 7.0% of GDP, in the first half, next to the $12.4bn gap in errors and omissions (BusinessDay).

Nigeria's power regulator says 8.05 million of 12.75 million active electricity customers now have meters, a national metering rate of 63.10% in August. For the households still on estimated bills, that is the tariff that never makes the inflation headlines (NERC data via BusinessDay).

That's the week. Back next Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. And if Central Africa is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Cameroon publishes the same day.

Kilwa Nigeria · Friday, October 16, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 1 · Week 42

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Kilwa Nigeria is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in English and Hausa. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io