Fitch turns positive with reserves at $54.9 billion, NNPC sells petrol at cost to Oct 31, INEC drops two PDP candidates and the Dangote IPO closes Oct 13.

Three years of reform finally earned Nigeria a vote of confidence this week. Fitch moved its outlook to positive, citing record reserves and inflation that has fallen by a third in a year. Then the campaign arrived. With the presidential vote on Jan 16, the government told NNPC to sell petrol at cost until Oct 31 and proposed a price ceiling that moves the loss onto refiners, Dangote included, in the very week Dangote asks investors from Lagos to Nairobi for ₦2.15 trillion. INEC's final lists cut two opposition contenders out of the governorship race, and in the north-west, gunmen hit a federal highway site. The rating agencies are paying for discipline. The question for the next 96 days is how much of it survives the campaign.

What happened. Fitch Ratings affirmed Nigeria at B on Oct 9 and moved the outlook to positive from stable, per its rating action report as carried by Nairametrics. Fitch cited gross reserves of $54.9 billion on Sept 25, up from $32 billion in mid-April 2024, growth of 4.3% this year and a current account surplus of 6.4% of GDP. A day earlier in Singapore, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso put gross reserves at a record $55 billion and net reserves at $46 billion, against $34.8 billion at the end of 2025.

Why it matters. All three agencies now point the same way. S&P raised Nigeria to B in May and Moody's moved its B3 rating to a positive outlook in late August. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts August inflation at 15.39%, down from 23.14% a year earlier. What holds the rating back is the cost of debt. Fitch expects interest to absorb 27% of general government revenue over 2026-28, almost twice the 14% median for B-rated peers, and more than half of federal revenue. For investors, a positive outlook usually tightens Eurobond spreads before any upgrade arrives. For the government, it raises the price of any pre-election spending that looks like a return to subsidies.

Taiwo Oyedele, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, announced on Oct 8 that NNPC Retail, the filling-station arm of the state oil company, would give up its margin and sell petrol at cost for an initial 30 days, with priority for public transport. NNPC said the promotion runs to Oct 31. The government is also negotiating a ceiling of ₦1,350 a litre on the landing cost of petrol. Above it, refiners and importers would absorb the gap and recover it later, with a monthly review. On Oct 8, NNPC pumps sold at ₦1,355 in Lagos and Rivers and ₦1,370 in Abuja, per ICIR.

The discount itself is small. Oyedele says the retail margin is under 5% of the pump price, and Premium Times puts the upper bound at about ₦4.62 billion a month. The ceiling is the bigger story. It is a price rule with no budget line, and it lands on the Dangote refinery, the largest domestic supplier, during its own share sale. Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, called it an "election-laced subsidy package" and asked, "What happens on Day 31?" Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde, running for president on the APM ticket, asked Abuja to publish the pricing template. Oyedele says "a subsidy is different."

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) published its final candidate lists for the Feb 6, 2027 governorship elections on Oct 10. Isa Pantami in Gombe and Ladi Adebutu in Ogun, both of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), are not on them, which leaves the PDP with no listed candidate in either state. Kingsley Chinda of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers was cleared despite questions over when he joined the party. In Kano, the NDC candidate Aminu Abdussalam-Gwarzo was also missing, which his party blames on a "computer" error.

The driver is the Supreme Court's Sept 24 judgment in INEC v Zenith Labour Party (SC/CV/495/2026), which restored the rule that only members on a register filed with INEC can contest primaries. INEC's documents gave no reasons for the omissions. The APC wrote to INEC on Oct 9 demanding that the rule be enforced even more strictly, while the PDP says it is "engaging INEC" and Adebutu has vowed to sue. Expect pre-election suits in the Federal High Court to run deep into the 117 days before the governorship vote. For businesses in Ogun, the industrial state next to Lagos, the field for the next governor just got smaller.

The Dangote refinery's offer of 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 each, about ₦2.15 trillion, closes on Oct 13. East Africans can buy in too. Kenya's and Uganda's market regulators approved about 729 million global depositary receipts (GDRs) at KSh53.50, about $300.4 million or almost 20% of an IPO of at least $1.6 billion, per ThisDay and Arise TV. Allotment is expected around Nov 12, with a Nairobi listing 15 business days later.

On Oct 9, the fintech OPay filed a public F-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to list on the New York Stock Exchange under OPAY. The filing shows revenue of $536.3 million in 2025, up from $205.7 million in 2024, net income of $90.9 million in the first half of 2026, and 89.5% of revenue from Nigeria. BusinessDay reports Standard Bank will buy up to $200 million alongside the IPO. The context matters. Government securities took ₦11.08 trillion, about 80%, of the ₦13.86 trillion in new and additional listings on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) from January to September. Investors want Nigerian equity, and the biggest issuers are now going where the dollars are.

On the night of Oct 6, troops repelled an attack by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) fighters on Kukawa town in Borno and say they killed 25 of them. Defence Headquarters counts 36 militants killed and at least 50 hostages rescued nationwide from Oct 2 to 8. These are military figures. In Yobe, Aminiya reported that soldiers arrested a local politician in Kanamma, Alhaji Wakiil Goni Mama, accused of supplying ISWAP. That story ran only in Hausa and rests on unnamed security sources.

The north-west is getting more dangerous for builders. Gunmen killed an expatriate worker and two security officers at a Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway construction site in Maiyama, Kebbi, the state police confirmed on Oct 8. In Zamfara, troops defused two roadside bombs on the Dansadau road in Maru, a report Aminiya carried in Hausa before English outlets. Bombs on roads and attacks on a flagship federal project raise costs for contractors and insurers. Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Olufemi Oluyede has ordered satellite surveillance extended to the north-west and north-central theatres.

■  The US court fight over President Bola Tinubu's FBI and DEA records continues in Washington (Greenspan, D.D.C. case 1:23-cv-01816-BAH), with no ruling this week. Peter Obi called the bid to keep the files sealed "profoundly embarrassing" (Semafor reported, Guardian Nigeria).

■  APC campaign director-general Abdulaziz Yari told Aminiya that Tinubu launches his campaign in Kaduna on Oct 24. So far only the Hausa press has carried the date (single-sourced).

■  Suspected thugs attacked NDC supporters at Enugu airport and the party office on Oct 10. The state government condemned it (Premium Times).

■  Nigeria sold ₦968.47 billion of Treasury bills on Oct 7. The one-year rate dipped to 15.85% from 15.89%, down from 17.70% in July (Nairametrics).

■  Semafor reported that NNPC spent $8 billion protecting oil assets in 2025, up 26%. We could not find the figure in NNPC's own 2025 results, so it stays single-sourced.

■  UK universities withdrew 22.7% of Nigerian study-visa applications in the first half of 2026, up from 4.5% a year earlier, after the Home Office tightened its refusal threshold (FT via Nairametrics).

■  The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control said on Oct 6 that Nigeria has no confirmed Ebola case after Kenya's imported case (Channels).

■  The drug agency NDLEA places the meth lab tied to a Mexican suspect arrested in Lagos in Ebonyi State. Bloomberg reported four labs dismantled in six months (single-sourced).

■  The Super Eagles drew 3-3 with Russia on Oct 6 after a 3-0 loss in Guinea-Bissau left them bottom of their AFCON 2027 qualifying group (NAN, Africasoccer).

CBN Central Bank of Nigeria · NBS National Bureau of Statistics, which publishes inflation and GDP · INEC Independent National Electoral Commission, which runs elections · NNPC Nigerian National Petroleum Company, the state oil company, whose retail arm runs filling stations · ISWAP Islamic State West Africa Province, a jihadist group active around Lake Chad · GDRs Global depositary receipts, certificates that let investors abroad hold a company's shares · NGX Nigerian Exchange, the Lagos stock market

Inflation fell by about a third in a year, but it has hovered near 15.4% since March. The 23% policy rate still sits about 7.6 points above it. The September reading, expected around Oct 15, is the next test for the CBN after its September cut.

■  Ratings. Fitch B, outlook positive (Oct 9). Moody's B3 positive, S&P B. Fitch flags total return swaps and interest costs as the risks to watch.

■  Dangote refinery IPO. Closes Oct 13, allotment around Nov 12. The $2.5 billion private placement led by the Africa Finance Corporation in August was a separate, earlier deal (Premium Times).

■  OPay. Public F-1 filed Oct 9. Underwriters include Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Standard Bank (BusinessDay). Renaissance Capital estimates a raise of up to $500 million.

■  Bonds. The last FGN bond auction on Sept 14 cleared at 16.79% for 2036 and 16.85% for 2038 (DMO). October results were not posted by Oct 12.

■  Petrol ceiling. The ₦1,350 landing-cost cap is still under negotiation. Watch who signs, and how refiners recover the gap.

Nollywood found a hit outside December. Agbara Nla: The Return took ₦170.59 million from 28,468 admissions in its opening run, previews included, the biggest non-December opening and the third-biggest Nollywood opening overall, per FilmX data reported by Nairametrics. Faith audiences, it turns out, buy cinema tickets in October too.

That's the week. Back next Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. And if Central Africa is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Cameroon publishes every Friday.

Kilwa Nigeria · Monday, October 12, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 1 · Week 42

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Kilwa Nigeria is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in English and Hausa. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io